Socio-Economic Impact Assessment


The crisis will have a strong impact throughout Southeastern Europe. Countries relying on tourism for their GDP like Montenegro and Croatia will be most severely hit. Their GDP in 2020 is expected to decrease by 9%. North Macedonia is in the group of moderately affected countries, together with Bulgaria. The deterioration of the economic outlook in the region can also be seen in stock market indices.

GDP comparison by country

Hardest hit are tourism-dependent
economies like Croatia and Montenegro
with over -9%

Positive growth is expected
in all countries in the region
in 2021

Expected fall in GDP in Western Balkans is
-5.7%, causing a more severe
recession than the 2009 financial crisis

The Stock Market Indices in 2020

Share prices down
by 25-35%
at the lowest point

Slight recovery since then,
but still 14-21%
down from before the crisis

Macedonian Stock Exchange
is least affected