Socio-Economic Impact Assessment

SECTORAL IMPACT

As one would expect, the crisis had a severe impact on the industry. Тhe first half of 2020, compared to the same period last year, marked а decline in industrial production of 14.6%, in wholesale trade turnover of 33.3% and in retail trade of 8.9%. The hardest-hit industries were tourism and hospitality where the overnight stays fell by 66% and 97.8%, respectively for foreign and domestic tourists in the first five months of 2020. Several sectors of the industry have proven resilient to the crisis and achieved growth (pharmaceuticals, computer, and electronics, construction…) but the rest of the industrial branches that make up 86% of the industrial production were negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Production by branches of industry

21 branches or 83.5%
of the industrial production
have been negatively affected by the COVID-19

Manufacture of leather, machinery, equipment
and motor vehicles are the hardest hit
with a decline of 21-43%

Total industrial production
bottomed out in June 2020
with -14.6%

Production and number of employees by industry

The overall industrial production is
down by 13.2%
for the first seven months

The industrial production
in August 2020 is
still down some 9%

The less pronounced
impact on employment
is a result of the government economic measures

Foreign direct investments and private transfers

In the first half of 2020 there was
a net FDI inflow of 112 mill EUR
with a notable decline in Q2 2020

Private transfers
declined by nearly 22%
in the first six months of 2020

Net FDI and private transfers
are expected to decrease
as a portion of GDP in 2020 by 50% and 25%

Overnight stays in tourism sector

The total number of overnight stays by tourists
is down by 46.3%
for the first nine months of 2020

Sharp and steady
decline of overnight stays
by foreign tourists up to 91% in September 2020

Domestic overnight stays
slightly recovered
in July and August 2020